Drop chances

ItemStage 10Stage 50Stage 100Avg count
Empty Water Jar56%56%56%0.56
Murky Water37%37%37%0.37
Beer7.0%7.0%7.0%0.07
Water3.8%3.8%3.8%0.04
Grandpa's Learnin' Elixir2.5%2.5%2.5%0.02
Grandpa's Moonshine2.5%2.5%2.5%0.02
Recog2.4%2.4%2.4%0.02
Grandpa's Awesome Sauce2.3%2.3%2.3%0.02
Shotgun Weekly0.74%0.74%0.74%0.01
Rifle World0.72%0.72%0.72%0.01
Handgun Magazine0.67%0.67%0.67%0.01
Tactical Warfare0.67%0.67%0.67%0.01
Home Cooking Weekly0.62%0.62%0.62%0.01

Average count per open at loot stage 50. From 40,000 simulated opens per stage; perks that raise loot are not counted.